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TODAY's
overcapacity and slow steaming means that
that if the Suez Canal were to be shut down
due to political strife, surplus tonnage
and extra speed is available to cope via
the Cape of Good Hope without great disruption.
According
to a Drewry Maritime Research study, there
is enough spare vessel capacity to absorb
most of the shock of sailing from the Far
East to Europe via South Africa "simply
by increasing vessel speeds" and the
overall disruption "would not be very
painful".
Said
Drewry analysts: "All eyes are watching
the deteriorating political situation in
Egypt. Recent riots were, arguably too close
for comfort for those dependent on the Suez
Canal."ˇK
Riots
combined with a police strike have European
supply chain managers worried and will soon
have US east coast shippers worried too
as more Asian cargo is routed via Suez than
ever before.
"To
put the importance of the Suez Canal into
perspective, its two-way trade between the
Far East and Europe accounted for 20.1 million
TEU last year, compared to 5.2 million TEU
between the Indian subcontinent/Middle East
and Europe, and 688,000 TEU between Australasia/Oceania
and Europe," said the report.
If
it is closed, 12 ships would be forced to
do the work of 10 on each of the 24 weekly
services. If all had to go around southern
Africa, it would result in a 17 per cent
fall in productivity if ships maintained
slow steaming, Drewry said.
"To
continue providing the same capacity per
week with a weekly frequency, carriers would
have to inject 48 additional ships into
the Asia-North Europe services, or increase
the speed of their ships, or a combination
of both," said the report.
Using
CMA CGM's and MSC's FAL 7/Lion Service between
the Far East and Northern Europe as a case
study, Drewry analysts found a cost breakdown
revealing.
"It
currently deploys 10 vessels averaging 13,100
TEU between Ningbo, Shanghai, Xiamen, Yantian,
Chiwan, Singapore, Suez, Sines, Le Havre,
Rotterdam, Antwerp, Dunkirk, Felixstowe,
Valencia, Suez, Port Klang, Singapore, Yantian,
Chiwan, Xiamen and Ningbo. Its vessels average
18.5 knots westbound, and 14 knots eastbound,"
said the report.
"If
the average speed of the loop were to be
increased to 22 knots in both directions,
a weekly frequency could still be maintained
via the Cape, with the westbound transit
time being increased by just 2.5 days. And
on the way back, transit time would in fact
be just over three days shorter. The speed
would also allow a sufficient safety margin
against a top speed of between 24 and 25
knots," the report said.
Fuel
costs would be 77.5 per cent higher, the
report conceded, resulting in a US$210 per
TEU fuel surcharge, but there would no longer
be a $83 per TEU Suez Canal charge and no
more costly anti-piracy measures needed
in the Gulf of Aden.
More
difficultˇXbut not impossibleˇXwould be
Far East-to-Med services via the Cape. This
would involve coming in from Gibraltar and
reversing port rotations from east to west
to west to east.
"However,
assuming this were to be done, its 11 vessels
averaging 8,800 TEU could still maintain
a weekly frequency via the Cape at 22 knots,"
said Drewry analysts.
A
Suez closure would prove a boost to Singapore
because there would be fewer direct calls
to the Indian subcontinent and thus more
feeders would likely come to the Lion City
as well as Colombo and Salalah. Again, noted
Drewry's there is ample vessel capacity
to cope though, but transit times would
be slightly longer.
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