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AP3
ALLIANCE members Maersk Line, MSC and CMA
CGM have opted for only moderate vessel
capacity growth in their proposed Asia-Europe
and Asia-North America for the second quarter
of 2014, which are subject to regulatory
approval in the US, EU and China.
A
report by London's Drewry Maritime Research
said this suggests that "service quality
rather than quantity will be the P3 alliance's
main fighting tool" against its competitors.
With
regard to Asia-North Europe routes, only
a 2.25 per cent increase is planned compared
to the available capacity at the start of
September (excluding transshipments and
slot charter cargo). One weekly service
will be dropped, but this will be more than
compensated by a 14 per cent increase in
average vessel capacity, up to 13,032 TEU,
including the deployment of 18,000-TEU ships
from Maersk.
On
routes between Asia and the Mediterranean
there will be one less weekly service. Vessel
deployment within the new services remains
to be clarified, meaning it is not yet possible
to assess the impact of this on capacity.
It
has been confirmed so far that the P3's
new services will deploy ships ranging in
size from 8,500 TEU to 16,000 TEU. The 64
vessels now deployed have an average size
of 10,467 TEU.
On
transpacific routes several end-to-end services
are being replaced by pendulum schedules
that sometimes flit between the North American
East and West coasts to gain economies of
scale.
There
is also one butterfly schedule that will
be operated by a fleet of thirteen 9,500-TEU
ships that cross the Pacific twice in two
separate services that are branded Jaguar/TP2
and New Orient/TP8.
Asia-west
coast North America capacity will be increased
by five per cent, up to 2,756,000 TEU, and
Asia-east coast North America capacity will
be raised by eight per cent, up to 1,586,000
TEU, compared to available capacity at the
start of September.
The
three Suez Canal schedules will remain,
as will one Panama Canal service between
Asia and the East Coast of North America,
but ships will be bigger.
Drewry
said its Container Insight Weekly report
will analyse the effects of the changes
being made to transatlantic services at
a later stage owing to the complexity of
separating existing services shared with
other shipping lines. However, the vessels
to be deployed in each new loop have not
yet been confirmed.
The
new Asia-Europe, transpacific and transatlantic
schedules will deploy a total of 252 vessels
offering a combined capacity of 2.6 million
TEU in 28 separate weekly loops, of which
Maersk will provide 42 per cent. There will
be "no significant change in vessel
speed", and the network will be run
by an independent vessel-operating company,
unlike other shipping alliances where loops
are operated by individual member lines.
All
of the new east-west schedules remain subject
to regulatory approval from trading partners,
especially Europe, the US and China. As
the P3's market share between Asia and Europe
will exceed the 30 per cent maximum allowed
by the EU's consortia regulations, nothing
can be taken for granted, Drewry said.
It
will need to be determined if the advantages
offered by the P3 alliance outweigh its
disadvantages, including the fear of anti-trust
behaviour, that is "abuse of a dominant
position".
If
the centralised coordinating office set
up by the three carriers functions according
to plan, MSC's and CMA CGM's schedule reliability
is expected to improve significantly.
Drewry
added that it is still of the view that
the advantages of the P3 alliance should
outweigh its disadvantages, including better
pricing stability, schedule reliability,
frequency, and direct port pair connections.
The danger is that with less to differentiate
service quality between the three carriers,
price will become the determining factor.
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