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DESPITE
more mega ships in the world fleet, vessel
capacity cascading into the Asia-Mediterranean
tradelane between has been minimal, according
to London's Drewry Maritime Research.
But
carriers need to cancel sailings from Asia
to stabilise westbound rates as there is
little sign of economic recovery in the
western Med to do the job, say Drewry analysts.
The
withdrawal of the ABX Black Sea service
alone - a reduction of vessel capacity of
seven per cent on the tradelane - will still
not be enough to keep utilisation above
90 per cent during the winter, they said.
Eight
sailings were cancelled during the month,
including four from the G6's ABX service
to the Black Sea and four from CSCL, "K"
Line, Yang Ming, PIL, Wan Hai, Cosco, Zim
and Hanjin.
Yet
cargo growth from Asia to the Mediterranean
remained high in August with shipments out
of Asia reaching 412,000 TEU, compared to
420,000 TEU in July, and 415,000 TEU in
May and June, attributed to shippers trying
to beat China's new value added tax on shipping
from August.
August
volume increased throughput seven per cent
year on year with growth to the eastern
Med rising 11.2 per cent to 1.6 million
TEU while the western Med only had 3.1 per
cent, uptick to 1.5 million TEU. Still,
both were better than the one per cent growth
on Asia-north Europe trade at the same time.
This
surprised Drewry analysts who noted that
the positive Med numbers came against a
background of severe economic depression
still clouding Spain, Greece, Italy and
Cyprus.
This
was later attributed to a greater cargo
flow shipped from central Europe via the
Adriatic, which they found difficult to
quantify, while noting with interest that
the P3 mega alliance has announced improved
direct services from Asia to the Adriatic.
Giving
credence to the wisdom of such a decision,
Drewry noted that Trieste's January-September
container traffic increased 14 per cent
to 349,000 TEU, although Koper's only rose
by four per cent, to 445,500 TEU.
Containerised
exports from Eastern European show that
Turkey leads the pack, but carriers have
been cautious in response with vessel capacity
increasing only one per cent between July
and August to 453,000 TEU.
Vessel
capacity was then reduced by seven per cent
in September mostly because of the G6 ABX
service cancellations as well as seven other
sailings. Other changes were confined to
seasonal schedule changes to port pairs
and vessel upgrades with the average capacity
of all vessels deployed, increasing minimally
from 9,052 TEU in July to 9,076 TEU in August
and then onto 9,193 TEU in September.
The
consequence is that average vessel utilisation
remained above 90 per cent in August, which
helped keep rates up, but then the spot
market sagged shortly afterwards.
On
the eastbound leg, cargo volumes from the
Mediterranean to Asia in August were high,
said Drewry, reaching 176,000 TEU compared
to 188,000 TEU in July and 179,000 TEU in
June. This took the year-to-date increase
up to an impressive 11.7 per cent, albeit
from a small base. Growth from the eastern
Med was 15 per cent, compared to eight per
cent from the western Med.
Eastern
European container cargo has also been rising,
particularly from Slovenia, thought to be
the diversion to central European exports
from north Europe ports.
This
is also thought to be the result of westbound
schedule changes that caused eastbound vessel
capacity to rise one per cent between July
and August to 338,000 TEU, and then to fall
seven per cent in September, followed by
another one per cent drop in October.
But
it also meant that vessel utilisation fell
from 56 per cent in July to 52 per cent
in August, an advantage not long lost to
shippers and quickly reflected in spot market
rates.
This
was followed a 20 per cent drop in eastbound
carrier capacity and 8.5 per cent westbound
for unusable slots due to deadweight limitations
and the high-cube factor, plus a 2.5 per
cent cut for outsized cargo and two per
cent westbound.
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