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THE
Panama Canal expansion project is scheduled
to be completed in 2014. The expansion program
comprises the construction of two new sets
of locks - one on the Pacific and one on
the Atlantic side of the canal.
After
completion, the new locks will almost triple
the canal's current handling ability, making
it capable of processing 14,000-TEU ultra
large containerships (ULCS) compared to
only 5,000-TEU ships now. The throughput
of the canal is expected to double by then.
So
what will this mean for the fate of the
panamax containership in an increasingly
post-panamax world?...
Recently
published figures from maritime analyst,
Alphaliner, show that panamax ships are
still prevailing in the Asia-US east coast
(USEC) trade for services that transit the
Panama Canal. A total of 133 panamaxes,
accounting for 20 per cent of the panamax
fleet, are deployed on this route.
As
a whole the transpacific trade absorbs 27
per cent of the panamax fleet. In other
words, only seven per cent of panamax ships
sailing the transpacific route do not pass
through the Panama Canal now.
But
the prospects for the panamax fleet on the
transpacific trade are not bright. Panamaxes
are losing their edge to postpanamax vessels
as the latter have offer greater economies
of scale.
Postpanamaxes
feature a beam of more than 32.3 metres,
making them too wide to pass through the
existing Panama Canal locks. So postpanamax
vessels deployed on Asia-USEC loops now
need to pass through the Suez Canal instead
of the Panama Canal.
But
when the new Panama Canal locks are open
to cater for ultra large containerships
of up to 14,000 TEU in 2014-15, most current
panamaxes plying the Asia-USEC route will
presumably be supplanted by larger vessels.
This
is what has happened on a number of other
trade lanes in recent years, says Alphaliner.
Besides
the transpacific trade, other current Panama
routes that employ panamaxes, such as the
Europe-South American west coast and Asia-South
American north coast, will see an influx
of 6,000-9,000 TEU ships in near term.
On
the Asia-Europe route the panama vessels
have all but vanished from the scene. Today
they account for just two per cent of the
Asia-Europe fleet.
Currently,
only 10 panamaxes are sailing on a single
Asia-Mediterranean service. But back to
2008, there were 74 units deployed on this
trade, accounting for 15 per cent of the
panamax fleet.
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