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NEW
YORK's Maritime Professional is predicting
a more than three per cent in US container
traffic in 2014 based on the statements
from the Transpacific Stablization Agreement
(TSA), the Journal of Commerce and the National
Retail Federation as well as other indications.
"Two
of the most authoritative forecasts are
by the National Retail Federation and the
Journal of Commerce. The Journal's economics
forecaster, Mario Moreno, reckons container
imports will grow six per cent this year
to 19 million TEU, following a 3.5 per cent
rise in 2013," said the article by
Martin Rushmore.
"The
retailers say container import growth will
be 3.7 per cent this year," he said.
"Adding
to the optimism is the proposed rate increase
by the TransPacific Stabilization Agreement.
There has already been an increase in January,
a US$300 per FEU increase is planned for
March and a $300 per FEU 'cost and recovery
increase' for 2014-15 contract rates in
May," he said.
"The
TSA is known for being extremely cautious
in its forecasts and sometimes becomes overgloomy,
but is now in an almost exuberant mood.'Pent-up
demand, depleted retail and business inventories,
and a greater overall sense of economic
security are converging in 2014. Lines are
determined not to miss that opportunity'"
he said it, citing TSA's recent press release.
Anticipating
a faster pace of growth in transpacific
trade, member container shipping lines of
the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement,
which include APL, "K" Line, CSCL,
Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Cosco, NYK, Evergreen,
OOCL, Hanjin, Yang Ming, Hapag-Lloyd, Zim
and Hyundai, have announced a March 15 rate
rise of US$300 per FEU, with another one
expected on May 1. The two general rate
increases follow the January 15 hike of
$300 per FEU.
The
announcement comes as transpacific cargo
demand has posted steady growth coming off
a healthy holiday season, and container
lines serving the Asia-US trade lane say
the gains are so far reflected in freight
rates.
"Carriers
have left a lot of money on the table in
this market as partially successful increases
have been eroded over time," said TSA
executive administrator Brian Conrad.
At
the same time, TSA also announced its 12-month
revenue and cost recovery programme for
2014-15 contracts, which recommends increases
to contract rates of $300 per FEU from 2013-14
levels for US west coast cargo and $400
per FEU for all other cargo.
"Simply
rolling over last year's contract rates
- let alone reducing the rates, as some
shippers have requested - is just not workable,"
Mr Conrad said, reiterating that no major
transpacific carrier operated profitably
in the trade in 2012 or 2013.
"The
goal is a meaningful net increase, with
full cost recovery for fuel, chassis, free
time and other costs, irrespective of supply/demand
or other considerations," he said.
But
the Maritime Professional blog speaks of
possible problems, such as US west coast
docker contract negotiations and the chassis
management.
"My
own opinion is that no one wants to pay
for repairs and maintenance - passing the
buck - while the lines will only help with
allocation to favoured customers such as
Big Box stores," said Mr Rushmore.
He
also expressed concern about the fate and
impact of the P3 and G6 mega alliances now
awaiting the judgment of regulators in the
US, Europe and China as well as their routing
and capacity plans, the clean trucks programme
and the US Harbour Maintenance Fee.
Another
worry is that various countries in the TransPacific
Partnership talks could become fractious
over technology and clothing issues.
He
says imports from Asia will be up 4.7 per
cent, although volumes from China will slow
down, largely because of the rising labour
costs. Imports from Malaysia and Taiwan
will show a drastic fall, 20 per cent below
the 2007 peak.
Citing
the JOC's Mr Moreno, he said: "US container
exports will be up two per cent this year,
the same as in 2013, to 12.4 million, TEU.
China will be a slight disappointment while
Northern Europe's economies will continue
to struggle to get back to growth."
"The
spark of optimism has made Long Beach almost
catch fire with enthusiasm. The port is
now boasting that it will handle at least
seven million TEU in the next year or two,
up from 6.7 million TEU in 2013. Long Beach
and LA jointly registered a four per cent
increase in 2013," Mr Rushmore said.
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