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Container
trade has grown firmly over the last decade,
write Clarkson analysts in the Shipping
Herald, adding that much of this expansion
has been driven by trade on the intra-Asian
network.
However,
when analysing this growth of terms of TEU-miles,
global expansion has been fairly evenly
spread between various routes, with the
deep sea mainlane trades in particular punching
above their weight in terms of TEU-mile
growth.
In
2005 container trade totalled 105 million
TEU, and this year it is expected to reach
179 million TEU. The mainlane routes, which
had historically represented a major growth
area of container trade, have expanded at
a relatively modest rate in the last decade,
at a rate of three per cent per annum.
This
compared to growth of 5.5 per cent per annum
in total box trade. Overall, mainlane trade
growth has accounted for 19 per cent of
total container trade expansion over the
period.
Intra-regional
trade (most of which is accounted for by
intra-Asian routes) has been by far the
largest contributor to container trade growth,
accounting for 47 per cent of expansion
in global trade in TEU and growing at a
CAGR of almost seven per cent per annum
in 2005-15.
However,
the pattern of trade growth has been much
more evenly spread between the routes when
looking at expansion in terms of TEU-miles.
Demand for container shipping is driven
by not only the number of boxes moved, but
also the distances involved; mainlane routes
are much longer than intra-regional trade
lanes. By using standard distance assumptions
for each trade lane, and weighting trade
growth in TEU by the miles travelled, a
picture of container trade in terms of TEU-miles
emerges.
In
the 2005-15 period, the various route groupings
have each contributed between 17 per cent
and 32 per cent to global TEU-mile trade
growth, a much smaller range than growth
in total TEU (which varies between 16 per
cent and 47 per cent).
Mainlane
trade appears as the biggest driver of TEU-mile
growth, while the contribution of intra-regional
trade is reduced to 27 per cent. Together,
the deep sea mainlane and north-south routes
have accounted for 55 per cent of growth
in TEU-miles over the 10-year period, versus
36 per cent in TEU terms.
This
large difference between the contribution
of mainlane routes to growth in TEU and
TEU-miles may help to shed some light on
recent ordering trends. Contracting of ”„megaships"
has principally been driven by the continued
pursuit towards lower unit costs.
However,
the vast majority of very large boxships
are deployed on mainlane routes (92 per
cent of capacity in the 12,000+ TEU sector
is deployed on the Far East-Europe route),
where although trade volume growth has typically
been slower than elsewhere, a notable ”„TEU-mile"
benefit is visible.
So,
the rapid growth in box trade on intra-Asian
routes still stands out as a principal driver
of global trade expansion over the last
decade. But looking at the figures in a
different way suggests a perhaps more balanced
picture for boxship demand across the various
trade lanes.
That
is why container shipping needs the deep
sea trades to keep clocking up the miles.
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