|
GLOBAL
trade forecasts for 2013 are already being
revised down, only a few months into the
year with the latest estimates from Clarkson
dropping from 6.6 per cent a month ago to
6.1 per cent today.
The
maritime consultancy group expects containerised
trade to reach 166 million TEU in 2013,
which will be the highest ever recorded
figure for the industry. But even in this
early stage of the year the forecasts for
the major trades are coming down significantly.
According
to Clarkson's Container Intelligence Monthly
report, Asia-Europe volumes just one month
ago were forecast to grow 3.96 per cent,
today that figure has been adjusted to 3.48
per cent for a total volume of 20.8 million
TEU.
This
marks an increase of just 1.46 per cent
from 2011, which was the last year that
the trade actually posted growth¡K
So
in actual fact if this latest Asia-Europe
forecast proves accurate, the trade will
only have caught up to where it was two
years ago¡Xand keep in mind that 2011 was
a loss-making year for the industry and
the Asia-Europe trade in particular.
On
the transpacific trade the latest forecast
is for growth of 4.3 per cent for a total
volume of 21.8 million TEU, downgraded from
the earlier projection of 5.68 per cent
growth for the year.
The
biggest change among all trade forecasts
covered by Clarkson in its monthly report
is on the transatlantic, which is now expected
to post growth of just 1.58 per cent to
6.4 million TEU, down from the earlier forecast
of 4.83 per cent for the year.
Commenting
on the precarious outlook for the mainline
trades this year Clarkson said that even
these revised figures for "modest growth"
were subject to further downgrades.
"This
is dependent on the larger European economies
avoiding recession, as well as US consumer
demand shrugging off the ongoing fiscal
uncertainty," it said.
The
US is roughly US$4 trillion in debt and
is now in the process of trying to wipe
out that debt through what will most likely
be a combination of increased taxes and
major spending cuts, all of which are unlikely
to encourage consumer spending.
Clarkson
again projects that a bulk of this year's
trade growth will occur in the emerging
markets. However, even the projections for
these trades are down, according to the
latest report from the group.
Non-mainline
east-west trades, which include the trades
connecting North America, Europe and the
Far East to the Indian Subcontinent and
the Middle East, are expected to collectively
post growth of 6.59 per cent to 21 million
TEU, down from the previous projection of
7.61 per cent growth.
The
North-South trades have had their forecast
revised down from 7.06 per cent a month
ago to 6.39 per cent today for a total of
28.3 million TEU. This of course is still
relatively healthy growth, but the fact
that the downward revisions are coming so
early in the year does provide some fodder
for concern.
The
only projection that remains unchanged from
month to month is the "others"
category, which includes all intra-regional
trades such as the Intra-Asia or Intra-European
trades, and south-south trades as well.
These markets are expected to see growth
of a very healthy 7.48 per cent year on
year in 2013 for a combined volume of 67.5
million TEU.
Intra-Asia
trade alone, according to Clarkson is forecast
to grow 8.3 per cent this year, which should
see the likes of Wan Hai, OOCL, RCL and
other Intra-Asia specialists post strong
results this year.
Total
container carrying capacity is expected
to rise 6.4 per cent to 19.55 million TEU
this year, which Clarkson says will put
supply and demand growth in relative balance
for 2013, but it will still be added onto
the already steep supply surplus in the
market from last year.
Shipping
lines will no doubt take steps to help reduce
the gap even further. One potential problem,
however, could be in vessel cascading as
larger vessels in the 8,000 TEU range that
are now too small for the Asia-Europe and
transpacific markets will be transferred
over to the healthier intra-regional trades.
This
could then see the supply and demand mismatch
in Asia-Europe and the transpacific transferred
to these other markets that typically work
with far smaller margins than the larger
trades, thus making the margin of error
smaller as well in terms of rate setting.
It
is still very early in the year and so much
now is merely speculative. But what we can
be sure of, even in the first quarter, is
that 2013 will be a challenging year for
the market. The only thing in question for
now is just how challenging it will be.
|
