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WHEN
looking at the US economy one can either
take a glass half full or glass half empty
approach. There is no truly clear picture
at this stage based on the data available.
On
the one hand we see that US unemployment
continues to decrease, which is great news.
The latest figures indicate that the unemployment
rate is now 7.6 per cent, down from 7.7
per cent in February and 7.9 per cent in
January.
For the shipping industry
the obvious consequence of a falling unemployment
rate is the increase in a populationˇ¦s
disposable income, which theoretically translates
into increased consumer spending and ultimately
the need for retailers to replenish stocks.
And that requires shippingˇK
But
in highlighting the consistently improving
unemployment figure it must be noted that
the Labor Department released its data on
newly created job in March, just 88,000,
which represents the slowest growth in job
creation in the past nine months.
Consumer
confidence was up again in March, rising
to a four-month high of 78.6 points, yet
at the same time economists remain nervous
about the impact of the sequestrian spending
cuts, which have yet to reveal their true
impact.
Based on the raw data alone
with no further explanation one could argue
from either a positive or a negative point
of view. The truth is that the market is
offering up some very mixed signals.
Even
the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke,
just recently offered up yet another statement
that could easily be used by the half-empty
or half-full crowd.
"Today the
economy is significantly stronger than it
was four years ago, although conditions
are clearly still far from where we would
like them to be,ˇ¨ he said during a recent
speech in Stone Mountain, Georgia.
The
latest Global Port Tracker report, jointly
produced by Hackett Associates and the National
Retail Federation, which comments on the
state of US imports this year also follows
the trend of mixed signals and prospects
for 2013.
The report cites much of
the above data as well as noting the potential
negative impact the ongoing crisis in Europe
may have on the US.
Nevertheless,
their import forecast remains more or less
in line with their previous assumption.
This is likely based on the fact that the
sequestrian cuts and the Euro crisis have
yet to reveal the precise impact they will
have on the overall economic condition of
the US.
The growth in containerised
imports at North American ports, according
to the Global Port Tracker, will reach 3.3
per cent this year for a total of 18.69
million TEU. While the growth figure is
conservative, it is at the very least a
positive figure.
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