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THE
world changed with China's accession into
the World Trade Organisation in December,
2001. Suddenly trade lanes were awash with
low-cost made-in-China merchandise as global
trade volumes began to soar.
Shipping
lines and airfreight carriers alike enjoyed
healthy profits thanks to the strong growth
in trade for the better part of the following
decade. But the world changed again in 2009
as the global economy was hit with the worst
financial crisis in almost a century.
Today
there is growing talk of the need to adjust
expectations to what is referred to as the
'new normal" in the aftermath of the
global financial crisis...
Gone are
the days of double-digit trade growth and
record profit margins for the ocean and
airfreight carriers. The new normal dictates
that we must set our expectations at a lower,
more realistic level.
While China
continues its role as the world's largest
manufacturer, its biggest customers, the
United States and Europe, are continuing
to endure economic hardships. As such, they
are consuming at a slower pace than before.
Even
the emerging economies that had shown much
promise, but were hardly expected to fill
the void left by weak European and American
demand, are now beginning to cool off as
well.
In just the first few months
of this year we have seen trade projections
for these emerging markets revised down
several times already.
According
to a recent report by the International
Transport Forum (ITF), world trade does
not appear to be returning to pre-crisis
levels, at least in the short term.
Some
analysts and observers did express hope
that with the financial crisis seemingly
behind us in 2010 that we would begin to
see a return to normal. Yet the data we
have seen since then overwhelmingly points
to a new normal emerging.
2010 was
an anomaly as the global economy did seemingly
shrug off the nightmare of 2009, and the
container shipping industry certainly benefited
from this. But by 2011 it was clear that
the hit the world took in 2009 would continue
to have a dampening impact on trade going
further into the future.
Sure we
were not plunged back into a global recession,
but it has been a shaky road to say the
least, particularly in Europe and the US.
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