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GLOBAL
trade volumes are projected to grow by 5.8
per cent this year to a total of 165 million
TEU against an increase in total container
shipping capacity of 6.3 per cent, according
to the latest Clarkson Container Intelligence
Monthly
In
terms of the fully cellular fleet, BIMCO
has forecast an increase in supply this
year of 7.4 per cent, or roughly 1.5 million
TEU.
Clearly,
supply is going to exceed demand in 2013
by a significant amount. But there are some
extenuating circumstances that might help
to offset the stark mismatch¡K
According
to a recent report from BIMCO, demolitions
in the first three months of this year have
been "flying at high pace, at an annualised
rate of 450,000 TEU".
The
actual figure for the first three months,
according to BIMCO was 93,000 TEU, which
is rather high, particularly when we consider
the implications this could have on the
7.4 per cent growth figure.
Alphaliner,
which has data for the first four months
of the year, puts the total demolition figure
now at 195,000 TEU. So it would seem that
the pace of scrapping continues unabated.
The
latest Alphaliner report concurs with the
BIMCO estimate of a full year scrapping
figure of 450,000 TEU. Clarkson, on the
other hand, is a little more conservative,
estimating that the total figure for 2013
will be close on 350,000 TEU instead.
Based
on Clarkson's data this year's demolition
rate will surpass last year's 334,600 TEU,
but will still fall short of the all-time
record of 379,400 TEU in 2009.
Given
the rate of scrapping over the past few
years, perhaps the Clarkson estimate would
appear a little more realistic. If indeed
the current pace of scrapping does keep
up then it would clearly be the most significant
level of demolition the industry has ever
seen.
What
is interesting, in terms of ship demolitions
this year, is the fact that there are more
Panamax-class vessel now headed to the scrap
heap. Previously, vessel scrapping was restricted
largely to the smallest, oldest ocean going
vessels¡Xmost of which were sub-1,000 TEU.
But
as scores of vessels are leaving the market,
plenty more are coming in.
Vessel
deliveries are coming thick and fast, based
on the latest figures.
Clarkson
reports that a total of 45 containerships
with a combined tonnage of 294,618 TEU were
added to the global fleet in the first quarter
of this year.
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