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Difficulties in taking anything but a negative view of Trump's progress in US-China trade talks

The major American importer of Chinese building materials looked furtively about before answering the question from the Shipping Gazette. He certainly did not want any fellow American hear him say a good word about President Donald Trump.

Even here at the TPM shipping conference in Shenzhen it was risky to answer the question whether he thought President Trump's complaints about Chinese trade practices had any merit.

Assured that no one could hear him during a late coffee break, he warily ventured: "Yes, there is truth in what he says..."

But just then another American delegate approached and hail and heartily called out saying: "Hey Bill, I haven't seen you in years."

The two men greeted each other warmly and Bill hastily cold shouldered the reported out of the conversation.

There is something like a reign of social terror when it comes to an entire range of issues of political correctness in shipping today, which now consists of more than the usual array gender and enviromental issues, about which there is only one socially acceptable view.

It has become next to impossible to assess a situation, to accept or reject proposals, on merits alone, but rather on the basis of who made the case.

In the case of China, the American political establishment, whether Democrat or Republican, is so upset of having its bureaucratic world threatened by government shutdowns, near reversals of policies at federal agencies, can no longer see any good coming from a White House policy even if plainly obvious.

Andy Rothman, once head of macroeconomics and domestic policy at the US Embassy in Beijing, now sees an end of the trade war before summer.

But if such an outcome reflects well on President Trump, it must be rejected even as a possibility. Only outcomes that reflect badly on his presidency can be accepted and encouraged even if such a result would be disastrous for his defenders and critics alike.

Nonetheless, this former US diplomat and China strategist has added his voice to the growing chorus of experts who believe a short-term resolution to the trade war can be reached within months.

Mr Rothman, who spent 17 years in the US foreign service focused on China and is now an investment strategist, said a deal could be struck by the summer, with domestic issues leading to increased motivation on both sides to make an agreement.

China is facing an economic slowdown that is beginning to show up in regional growth data, while the US stock market has been underperforming, as the long-running federal government shutdown continues.

China’s Vice-Premier Liu He is ready to talk to Washington, as both sides looking for some good news, as challenging economic data continues to roll in on both sides.

In the 1990s, Mr Rothman was involved in US efforts to negotiate China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation and knows Sino-American trade relations like few others.

 “Now that a negotiation is seriously under way, there is no reason for the US to go back and put more tariffs in place, as long as progress is being made towards a deal,” he said.

Agreeing, Robert Zoellick, a former US trade representative under President George W Bush and a former World Bank president who told the South China Morning Post that a deal could be struck.

Mr Zoellick said that such a deal would be “transactional” and implied that it would not address long-term structural issues in the Chinese economy.

It would now be helpful if highly partisan politics be put to one side and have common sense prevail for the good of all. It is well to remember that World War I broke out over a comparatively trivial assassination in the Balkans in the period of history otherwise known as the Belle Epoche, when Europe never had it so good. Then as now, one might say. It would be a great shame to destroy the happiness of millions just out of spite.

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How do you view the prospects of China-US trade relations? Do you think, the writer does, that candidly assessing issues on their merits rather than on unrelated matters would go a long way to improve trade relations?

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