Russia's absence from the Port of Hamburg trade has been a big loss, but the historic harbour is bearing up
 The loss of Russia as a trading partner because of the Russo-Ukrainian War and Germany's reliance on Russian energy supply looms as a significant challenges for the Port of Hamburg this year.
One worry is container throughput as geopolitical tensions, embargoes, or counter-sanctions could severely impact container traffic at the port. In 2023, without a resolution to strained relations, container throughput could experience a significant decline.
Research by the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA), the governing body responsible for managing the port, highlights the potential risks of losing Russian trade. According to the HPA (2021), Russia accounted for almost eight per cent of Hamburg's container cargo throughput in 2020.
The previously flourishing trade partnership encompassed various industries, including automotive, machinery, and chemical products. If this trade relationship deteriorates, the port can expect a simultaneous decline in container volumes.
Apart from containerised goods, the Port of Hamburg also handles an extensive range of bulk cargo such as coal, oil, and gas. Here, the consequences of losing Germany's energy supply from Russia are a mounting concern.
Germany has been highly reliant on Russian natural gas imports, making up roughly 30 per cent of its consumption (Eurostat, 2021). Any disruption in the energy supply chain could have a ripple effect on bulk cargo throughput at the port.
The International Gas Union (IGU) highlights that Germany's heavy dependence on Russian gas leaves it vulnerable to diplomatic spats or geopolitical tensions. The delivery of natural gas via pipelines could be affected, resulting in potential shortages and energy price volatility, ultimately impacting trade at the Port of Hamburg.
Moreover, the reduction in Russian energy supplies could also affect the export of coal and oil from the port. Russia is a significant supplier of both commodities to Germany, with a loss of supply resulting in decreased bulk cargo throughput.
The Trade Data Monitor emphasises that Germany's thermal coal imports from Russia were worth EUR1.8 billion (US$1.9 billion) in 2020. Any substantial disruption to these imports could significantly impact the port's bulk cargo volumes.
As Hamburg navigates this year's challenges, the potential loss of Russia as a trading partner and Germany's reliance on Russian energy supply remain significant concerns. The consequences of these losses could lead to a decline in container and bulk cargo throughput, affecting multiple industries and the overall economy.
To counterbalance such vulnerabilities, diversification of trade partnerships and a diversified energy mix become increasingly crucial to secure the port's future prosperity and stability.
Nonetheless, China remains Hamburg's No 1 trading partner by a wide margin. The 2022 list of Germany's top 10 partner countries produces a few surprises. At 294,000 TEU, throughput with Poland was up by almost 25 per cent, putting the country in fourth place. Throughput trends with Finland were similarly positive, a 22.3 per cent gain to 213,000 TEU putting the country into sixth place. There was a further positive signal from Canada, with throughput up by 6.6 per cent to at least 196,000 TEU and advancing the country from twelfth into ninth place.
In 2022 China again headed the list with 2.46 million TEU – down by 3.8 per cent. The US followed in second place with 605,000 TEU, representing a fall of 2.1 per cent. Nevertheless, the total number of loaded boxes in container traffic with the US rose by 0.6 per cent to 540,000 TEU. Singapore retained a steady third place with 423,000 TEU – down 1.1 per cent.
Both Sri Lanka and Malaysia were encouraging elements in the extended list of partner countries. Malaysia climbed to 13th position with a 10.7 per cent increase to 177,000 TEU, while Sri Lanka took 17th place with one of 8.8 per cent to 128,000 TEU. While in the previous year Russia had been in fourth position as a top partner, in 2022 throughput of 80,000 TEU coming in at 27th place.
Further increase in calls by megamax containerships with capacities of over 18,000 TEU, vessels made 234 calls, or six per cent more than last year.
Said Axel Mattern, CEO of Port of Hamburg Marketing: “With Christmas coming, in the final quarter we should normally see a rise in throughput totals. That failed to happen last year. The main reasons were high energy costs and inventories in industry.”
At 4.2 million TEU, seaborne container imports were consequently 6.1 per cent lower. For comparison, 4.1 million TEU were exported, a 4.1 per cent fall on the previous year.
"The growing number of megamax containerships clearly indicates further acceptance of the fairway adjustment, even with its depth temporarily reduced. Shipping companies have rapidly adapted to the new conditions,” said Mr Mattern. A five-per cent increase also occurred in calls by the second largest category – vessels between 14,000 and 17,999 TEU. Yet those by ships with between 10,000 and 13,999 TEU decreased by 16.6 per cent. The total number of calls by ‘large containerships’ therefore fell by 1.2 per cent to 486.
Calls by medium-sized containerships with capacities of between 8,000 and 9,999 TEU, or VLCCs – Very Large Container Ships, grew by 11 per cent. In the second half last year, it was only small containerships and feeder vessels that were arriving in the port less often.
Closer scrutiny of the container throughput totals reveals that transshipment trades were over 90 per cent responsible for the decline there. Throughput dropped by 12.1 per cent to 2.90 million TEU. Hinterland trades remained almost stable, with volume down by only 0.9 per cent to 5.4 million TEU.
Rail retained its lead in the modal split on hinterland services. More than half of all containers were still being shifted by rail. At 50.5 per cent – down one per cent, the overall result may be slightly negative. Shifting 2.7 million TEU, however, rail remains the top mode of transport for the hinterland. Despite the 2.8 per cent downturn, in this segment rail achieved the second-best annual result in its history.
The continuing uncertain situation on world markets makes it hard to deliver a forecast for this year's performance. “We hope the global economy will again recover. That will aid and boost throughput for the Port of Hamburg,” said Mr Mattern. |
