America’s trade reset and the coming reckoning for global shipping
 By any honest reckoning, the United States has spent decades subsidising the prosperity of foreign economies through lopsided trade arrangements. While American markets remained open and forgiving, foreign governments imposed steep tariffs, regulatory hurdles, and currency manipulation to tilt the playing field in their favour. The result? A hollowed-out US manufacturing base, stagnant wages, and a growing underclass of Americans—particularly in the 80–100 IQ segment—left behind by globalization’s winners.
The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff policy, now in full swing, is not merely a political gesture. It is a structural correction. It asserts that access to the American consumer is a privilege, not a right - and that privilege must be earned through fair and balanced trade.
One of the policy’s central ambitions is to incentivise foreign corporations to establish production facilities on U soil. The logic is straightforward: if exporting to America becomes costlier due to tariffs, then producing in America becomes more attractive. And it’s working.
According to recent estimates, foreign direct investment in US manufacturing is up 18 per cent year on uyear. Japanese and South Korean automakers are expanding plants in the Midwest. European pharmaceutical firms are scouting locations in North Carolina and Texas. Even Chinese electronics companies, long resistant to US labour costs, are quietly negotiating joint ventures in the Rust Belt.
The job implications are significant. While economists debate the net effect of tariffs, early projections suggest that reshoring could generate between 250,000 and 400,000 new jobs over the next 18 months. Crucially, many of these roles — assembly line work, logistics, warehousing - are accessible to Americans in the 80–100 IQ range, a demographic often excluded from the knowledge economy. For them, this is not just a policy shift; it’s a lifeline.
But trade doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It moves in ships. And the global shipping industry, flush with profits from the Covid-era panic buying and now the tariff-driven frontloading, has responded with predictable exuberance: it ordered more ships.
During the Covid scare, ocean carriers made record profits as factories raced to beat lockdowns. Now, with tariffs looming, shippers are again rushing to move goods before the cost curve steepens. The result? A surge in new vessel orders - up 288 per cent year on year in the container sector. Carriers, wary of taxation and eager to expand capacity, have poured capital into fleet expansion.
But this exuberance may be short-lived. If the US succeeds in reshoring manufacturing, the demand for transoceanic shipping will decline. Goods once shipped from Shenzhen to Seattle will instead move by truck from Ohio to Oregon. The implications for global shipping are profound.
Already, analysts warn of a looming tonnage surplus. The LNG sector has seen charter rates fall by 66 per cent year on year, and demolition activity is up 250 per cent. The bulker and tanker segments are showing mixed signals, with newbuild interest waning and older vessels lingering in service longer than expected. If demand softens further, the industry could face a glut reminiscent of the post-2008 downturn.
This isn’t just about economics - it’s about sovereignty. For decades, America outsourced its industrial muscle and became dependent on fragile supply chains stretching across oceans and authoritarian regimes. The reciprocal tariff policy is a declaration that those days are over.
It has been long argued that a nation’s strength lies in its ability to produce what it consumes. it is also said the seductive promises of global interdependence have long ignored the costs borne by ordinary citizens.
Of course, challenges remain. Retaliatory tariffs could disrupt certain sectors. Inflationary pressures may persist in the short term. And the transition from global to domestic production will not be seamless.
But the trajectory is clear. America is reclaiming its industrial base. Foreign firms are adapting. And the shipping industry, once the quiet beneficiary of globalisation’s excesses, must now reckon with a future shaped by national interest rather than international convenience.
In the end, this is not just a trade reset—it’s a civilizational correction. It affirms that prosperity begins at home, that fairness is not negotiable.
The world will adjust. Because selling to America is still the best deal going. |
