Living with the US-Sino trade war by interpreting China's new harsh IT legislation in a positive light
 In looking to the future with a concurrent US-Sino trade war, it is important to remember that radical course changes in the handling of the Covid-19 crisis and how they changed the lives of millions worldwide.
Doctors differ on the impact of the trade war and the coronovirus. Drewry Maritime Research analyst Simon Heaney believes that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the shipping industry superseded the impact of the trade war.
"Transpacific rate volatility settled down in 2019, but after Covid-19 arrived, transpacific rates went into the stratosphere from June 2020 due to a combination of factors, including higher-than-expected US demand and shortages of available ships and equipment," he said.
But BIMCO analyst Emily Hannah Stausboll argues that the phase one trade deal between the two countries, has led to an increase in trade.
Indeed, all US ports reported near record or record monthly volumes as last year's peak season got underway. But cargo surges were ascribed to stocking up in expectation of more severe lockdowns to come in the Covid crisis.
Beijing became so alarmed with the rise of freight rates out of China that it virtually ordered carriers to stop blanking sailings to inflate prices. Blankings slowed and carriers were even putting on extra loaders to cope with the unexpected volumes. Everyone seemed in the dark not knowing which way to turn or what would come next.
A Bank of Finland study expected GDP growth to slow 0.7 per cent as a result of the US-Sino trade war, which began in March 2018 when the US introduced sanctions on Chinese steel imports at 25 per cent.
The global GDP is not the only victim in the conflict between the US and China. Global investments and manufacturing purchasing indices also suffered from the increase of tariffs, which has led to volatility in share prices worldwide.
Other countries have also been affected, with UK firms registering significant collateral damage. According to a study by UK-based financial institution Stenn, British firms believe that the trade war will end up costing them GBP3 million (US$3.8 million) each on average, creating losses of GBP130.4 billion across Britain.
As for the impact of another potential Trump presidency on shipping freight, experts say they cannot make predictions. "Even if we assume the virus has been contained and that the issues surrounding capacity/equipment have been resolved, we don't know how aggressive he would be with trade policies," said Mr Heaney.
"Both the trade war and pandemic have raised shippers' awareness of the need to have more resilience in their supply chains, which will probably lead to more diverse sourcing strategies, and I suspect that will happen regardless of who wins the election," he said.
Much depends on how policies work out on both sides of the Pacific. Should the US pursue a less aggressive course than it has done in the past, problems with China will become less acute than they have been. But there is general agreement on both sides of the aisle in Washington and the world. that China can no longer be granted "most favoured nation" status with its increasingly totalitarian government. A system that now includes concentration camps, face-recognition "social credit" surveillance of its people, and an open hostility of democratic reforms is increasingly difficult to tolerate or treat with equanimity.
Yossi Sheffi, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Centre for Transportation & Logistics, said China had as much to fear from a Biden as a Trump administration.
"A more thoughtful approach from a President Biden could involve the creation of a coalition involving the US, the European Union, Japan and other large trading blocs. Instead of going it alone - the Achilles heel of the Trump interventions - Mr Biden could wield the combined buying power of these allies to pressure China into making meaningful changes in sensitive areas such as international property theft,"
Combine this with an already entrenched trend towards re-shoring and home shoring of manufactures, and that mega ships can now dock in Vietnam where much re-shoring has taken place and is likely to continue, we can say fewer export producing factories will establish themselves on the mainland. As it is unlikely that China will change its attitude to what the west finds objectionable, one can easily understand, Beijing's next move - a reliance on economic self-reliance in its latest Five-Year-Plan.
Attempts to wean China off its export-led economic model have been noted policy options for years now. But there seems to be a new seriousness about it. In the past, it was merely a good idea. Today, given present conditions, it has become a necessity.
But will it work? Of that. no one can be sure. Might it not end up being a decaffeinated Great Leap Forward? Not an unmitigated disaster, but a disappointment to a people who have lifted themselves into the middle class and likely to express their impatience to a leadership that has managed to take them from affluence to poverty to satisfy vain glorious global ambitions.
While such policies suggest a hunkering down to endure a prolonged trade war, one might see a silver lining in the recent promulgation of harsh new laws to protect Chinese intellectual property.
Trade Secret Theft is codified under Article 219 of the PRC Criminal Law. New amendments include increasing punishments for serious offences to include up to 10 years in prison.
Could not this be an olive branch in disguise, a gambit which leads to an undertaking to respect your intellectual property if you respect ours. As such Chinese laws are more declarations of feelings than legal intention, and this announcement via state media may well be of greater diplomatic importance that legal significance.
Taken this way, such an act might morph into a diplomatic thaw of sorts, enough to a break the logjam that has confounded relations between the US and China. Such might come to suggest a quid quo pro that would invite reciprocal treatment from the other side. We were on a cold war footing with Russia for years, yet it did not impede a robust trading relationship. Such might occur here. From the tiny acorn springs the mighty oak.
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