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NO
technology will automate away more jobs
- or drive more economic efficiency - than
the driverless truck, says Ryan Petersen,
CEO of Flexport, the San Francisco "forwarder
for the Internet age" .
Writing
an article for his own Flexport website,
Mr Petersen said that shipping a full truckload
from LA to New York costs US$4,500, with
labour representing 75 per cent of that
cost.
"But
those labour savings aren't the only gains
to be had from the adoption of driverless
trucks," he said.
"Where
drivers are restricted by law from driving
more than 11 hours per day without taking
an eight hour break, a driverless truck
can drive nearly 24 hours per day.
"That
means the technology would effectively double
the output of the US transportation network
at 25 per cent of the cost.
And
the savings become even more significant
when you account for fuel efficiency gains.
The optimal cruising speed from a fuel efficiency
standpoint is around 45 miles per hour,
whereas truckers who are paid by the mile
will drive much faster.
Further
fuel efficiencies will be had as the self-driving
fleets adopt platooning technologies like
those from Peleton Technology, allowing
trucks to draft behind one another in highway
trains.
Trucking
represents a considerable portion of the
cost of all the goods we buy, so consumers
everywhere will experience this change as
lower prices and higher standards of living.
In
addition, once the technology is mature
enough to be rolled out commercially we
will also enjoy considerable safety benefits.
This
year alone more people will be killed in
traffic accidents involving trucks than
in all domestic airline crashes in the last
45 years combined. At the same time, more
truck drivers were killed on the job, 835,
than workers in any other occupation in
the US.
Even
putting aside the direct safety risks, truck
driving is a grueling job that young people
don't really want to do. The average age
of a commercial driver is 55 and rising
every year, with projected driver shortages
that will create yet more incentive to adopt
driverless technology in the years to come
.
While
the efficiency gains are real - too real
to pass up - the technology will have tremendous
adverse effects as well. There are currently
over 1.6 million Americans working as truck
drivers, making it the most common job in
29 states.
The
loss of jobs representing one per cent of
the US workforce will be a devastating blow
to the economy. And the adverse consequences
won't end there. Gas stations, highway diners,
rest stops, motels, and other businesses
catering to drivers will struggle to survive
without them.
Recent
demonstrations in Europe shows that driverless
trucking is right around the corner. The
primary remaining barriers are regulatory.
We
still need to create on- and off-ramps so
that human drivers can bring trucks to the
freeways where highway autopilot can take
over. We may also need dedicated lanes as
slow-moving driverless trucks could be a
hazard for drivers.
These
are big projects that can only be done with
the active support of government. However,
regulators will be understandably reluctant
to allow technology with the potential eliminate
so many jobs.
Yet
the benefits from adopting it will be so
huge that we can't simply outlaw it. A 400
per cent price-performance improvement in
ground transportation networks will represent
an incredible boost to human well-being.
Where
would we be if we had banned mechanised
agriculture on the grounds that most Americans
worked in farming when tractors and harvesters
were introduced in the early 20th century.
Recently,
a convoy of self-driving trucks drove across
Europe and arrived at the Port of Rotterdam.
That was just the beginning.
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