|
Page
2 of 2
"In
reality, these trends support a slow and
steady - but low - growth rate for the rest
of the year," said the Cass report.
It
further indicated that US freight shipments,
at 1.126, fell 0.4 per cent in August compared
with the same period last year, but rose
1.7 per cent compared to July.
The
upside of this is that August marked the
37th consecutive months that shipments exceeded
the 1.0 point since May 2010.
However,
the report pointed out that there was shrinkage
of August shipments in the US on an absolute
basis compared to 2011 and 2012.
The
most positive view came from the Global
Port Tracker report by the US National Retail
Federation and Hackett Associates, which
said the August US merchandise imports showed
first increase since May, and US retailers
have started to stock up for the peak season
in November and December.
It
forecast that import volume at the US major
retail container ports would grow 1.7 per
cent in August year on year, and the gains
will persist through the holiday season
and the rest of 2013.
"As
the economy continues to slowly improve,
retailers are stocking up for their most
important sales season of the year,"
said NRF vice president for supply chain
and customs policy Jonathan Gold. "Merchants
have been very cautious so far this year,
but our forecasts show that they plan to
make up for it in the next few months."
Hackett
Associates founder Ben Hackett said that
trade at the US ports continues to grow,
so the US economy "remains on a slow
but steady course of recovery".
Expecting
the continuity of the US economic rebound,
the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement
(TSA) has proposed a general rate increase
(GRI) of US$400 per FEU for eastbound transpacific
trade since August 1, which followed an
earlier TSA hike of another $400 per FEU
for July.
Additionally,
TSA westbound section has also recommended
a new rate increase of $100 per FEU for
all cargo from all US origin points with
effect from October 1.
"If
carriers can make the necessary capacity
adjustments in unison, then there is always
a possibility that they can reverse the
declines. Therefore how rates now develop
for the remainder of the year really does
depend on the action of carriers,"
said Richard Ward, research analyst for
container derivatives at London shipbroker
ICAP Shipping.
Said
Drewry research manager Martin Dixon: "National
holidays in China starting at the end of
September may create a small demand spike.
However, if this does not materialise there
may be few other opportunities for carriers
to increase rates in 2013."
Nevertheless,
regardless of the sustainability of the
US economic recovery, a glut of vessels,
which provides a capacity that the market
cannot take, remains a formidable problem
for the industry. As a result, the freight
rates will definitely be under pressure
no matter how hard carriers attempt to raise
the rates, because vessels come in that
no one actually wants.
Overcapacity
is a hot potato for carriers as more mega
ships will be delivered in the years to
come. However, whether or not there is a
significant rebound, carriers should take
bold moves to reduce capacity as this is
the fundamental way to rectify the supply-demand
imbalance.
Page 1 2
|
