|
Page
2 of 2
"If
we are going to be months, or more realistically,
years in unwinding extraordinary policy
measures, which leading indicators can we
rely on to point the way for the economy?
The housing market is a favorite, and at
least in the US, it is showing vibrant growth.
Although strong pent-up demand is driving
the market upward, this reliable indicator
may see its own ups and downs, as current
activity is occurring in a context of very
easy access to financing, which is quickly
coming to an end," he warned.
"Average
weekly hours will be an interesting one
to watch. Uncertainty has made corporations
unusually reticent to hire. When global
growth begins to ramp up, we can expect
average hours worked to ramp up sharply
before companies get the signal that we
are in a new hiring cycle. Many economies
dealing with ageing populations may see
a stronger spike than in past recovery periods.
"Sentiment
is not normally a go-to harbinger of recovery,
but for the moment, this one might be prescient.
We have been so gloomy for so long, that
it may take recovery in confidence to jolt
the world into a sense that things are not
so 'new-normal-drab' as we have been led
to believe," Mr Hall said.
On
the other hand, doomster stock analyst Marc
Faber, who is as predictably gloomy, believed
we have dark speculation that we are in
the midst of a stock market bubble which
is bound to come crashing down.
"We
have to be careful of these kinds of exponentially
rising markets," said Mr Faber, adding
that he "sees no value in stocks."
Fearful of shorting, however, because "the
bubble in all asset prices" can keep
going due to the printing of money by world
central banks, he sees "future return
expectations from stocks are now very low."
Sustaining
Mr Hall's view is the continued growth of
Chinese port throughput, a fact that is
obscured by trend of slowing growth in the
big three¡VShanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen.
What
goes unnoticed is the rapid growth rate
of inland ports up the Pearl River and Yangtze
River that are close to new factories as
manufacturing moves inland to seek affordable
labour as high-wage coastal regions price
themselves out of the market.
The
great lament of yesteryear, which economic
activity was restricted to coastal regions,
leaving the Chinese interior bereft of opportunity,
is less and less so as low-end industry
is attractive to cities and towns in the
interior.
Second
tier ports of Ningbo, Qingdao, Tianjin,
Xiamen, Guangzhou, Dalian, Yingkou and Lianyungang
- still in China's top 10 - enjoyed the
big growth of 14.7 per cent between 2007
and 2012 against 4.1 per cent logged by
the big three, according to Clarkson statistics.
So
China's exports are still being made and
sold in great quantities in both east-west
and north-south trades, even if this hardly
shines because of slowing growth in Shanghai,
Hong Kong and Shenzhen, where the price
is no longer right. Put together with Mr
Hall's findings and the growth of second-
and third-tier China ports, there seems
more reasons to hope than to despair.
Page 1 2
|
