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THE
"One Belt One Road" sloganeering
out of Beijing, relates to building road
and rail infrastructure along the Old Silk
Road of Marco Polo's day. What is envisaged
is making the route a massive super-highway
for all transport modes.
But
that's just a first step, to focus the mind
on the glories of the 14th century Venetian
merchant adventurer, to use a route from
China across Black Sea to his homeport on
the Aegean in northern Italy.
The
"One Belt One Road" slogan covers
the generality of the route, which even
now goes well beyond the narrow Marco Polo
trail into south east Asia and the Indian
subcontinent, with a serious maritime hub
at Colombo.
What
"One Belt One Road" is likely
to be is a series of asymmetrical land bridge
projects with various degrees of Chinese
involvement, from full investment to arranging
the investment of others - and everything
in between.
What
it means for the future is perhaps better
perceived in Africa, where the previous
regimes of Communist leaders were busy doing
much the same work with no reference to
Marco Polo.
China
is now Africa's biggest trading partner,
having surpassed the United States in 2009.
By the end of that year, 45.7 per cent of
China's cumulative foreign aid of US$41.2
billion had been given to Africa.
Of
course, when China was the poorest of the
poor in the 1950s, it stood by rebel guerrilla
forces (which have since become legitimate
national armies) against African colonial
regimes. China armed them, and on independence
put in roads and railways. A grateful independent
Mozambique even graced its flag with a Chinese
AK-47 assault rifle.
Among
the most notable early projects was the
1,860-kilometre TAZARA Railway, linking
Zambia and Tanzania, which China helped
to finance and build from 1970 to 1975.
Some
50,000 Chinese engineers and workers sent
to Africa to complete the project. By 1978,
China was giving aid to more African countries
than the United States.
Without
the colonial baggage of Western powers,
and a record of offering a helping hand
when few would, China has reaped the rewards.
More than 80 per cent of China's $93.2 billion
in imports from Africa in 2011 were crude
oil, raw materials and resources.
South
Africa is China's largest trading partner
in Africa, at a volume of $20.2 billion.
Yet this is four per cent of China's trade
with the European Union.
Last
year, Lagos's Initiative for Public Policy
Analysis (IPPA) undertook a study of the
impact of Chinese involvement in Africa,
and said Beijing demanded few in any conditions
from aid recipient, attaching far fewer
strings than western powers did - for better
or worse.
Loans
from China provided an alternative source
of capital, which has weakened the position
of the World Bank. China's Overseas Development
Assistance has freed African nations from
tight fiscal control, transparency and the
rule of law and democracy, condition attached
to aid from western countries.
Unconditional
and low-rate credit lines (rates at 1.5
per cent over 15 years to 20 years) have
taken the place of the more restricted and
conditional Western loans. Since 2000, more
than $10 billion in debt owed by African
nations to China has been cancelled, says
Wikipedia.
The
Chinese were also willing to put money in
infrastructure when western aid givers demurred,
preferring to fund education and health
care projects instead.
But
China has been active here too. Between
the early 1960s and 2005, more than 15,000
Chinese doctors have been to Africa to treat
170 million patients over this period.
There
are 800 Chinese companies doing business
in Africa, most in the private sector investing
in the infrastructure, energy and banking.
IPPA
researchers Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun
Sotola found that 60 per cent of Chinese
exports were destined for only six countries.
The Nigerian team also found that fears
that China was stripping Africa of its oil
were groundless. Only nine per cent of Chinese
oil is imported from Africa while 62 per
cent comes from the Mideast. This compares
to 32 per cent of US oil imports coming
from Africa and 33 per cent of Europe's.
"In
terms of infrastructure projects, Chinese
financing rose $1 billion in 2003, to $7
billion in 2006," said the IPPA paper.
"China's
aid is characterised by equality and mutual
respect for the sovereignty of the recipient
countries. The loans are not conditional,
interest free and repayment can be easily
rescheduled," they said.
The
drivers of the Chinese engagement are a
need to shore up supplies of natural resources,
particularly oil, and create a voracious
market for its exports - and well as projecting
an image of a global super-power, they said.
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