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In
data compiled by the ITF it reveals that
in terms of tonnage total ocean-going import
volumes to the US over the last two years
(January 2011 to December 2012) have contracted
by 11 per cent, while exports have risen
two per cent.
If we combine export
and import traffic in terms of tonnage,
then sea trade volumes to and from the US
contracted six per cent between January
2011 and December 2012.
Imports by
sea to Europe, or the EU27, have slipped
four per cent over this time frame, while
exports have grown 14 per cent. Overall
sea going trade to and from Europe is up
just one per cent.
This is some rather
depressing data, particularly if this is
indeed the new normal.
But for the
ITF, it is not necessarily all bad news
going forward. While it concedes that the
situation in Europe is not optimistic, there
is evidence of a turnaround in the US.
"Airfreight,
considered a lead indicator for economic
performance, suggests a possible turning
point in the United States as air cargo
[in tonnes] shows signs of recovery since
October 2012," the report said.
The
EU27, on the other hand, ended the period
18 per cent down on the January 2011 figure.
World
trade grew by just two per cent last year,
according to the World Trade Organisation,
down from 5.2 per cent in 2011. It was also
well below the pre-crisis average growth
rate of six per cent. The WTO measures this
period from 1990 to 2008.
This year
the international body is projecting growth
of just 3.3 per cent, but warns of "significant
downside risks" related to "fiscal
contraction in developed economies",
particularly in Europe.
So for the
time being, at least, it would seem that
a new normal has emerged and it will result
in trade growth of just two to three per
cent year on year.
That is of course
until the US and Europe can truly put their
financial problems behind them, or some
earth shattering phenomenon comes along.
The
last two such events were China's accession
into the WTO, which bolstered world trade,
and then the global financial crisis, which
crippled it.
Could the next big event
be China's rise as a powerhouse consumer
of foreign goods? We'll have to wait and
see. But until then, we'd better get used
to the new normal.
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