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Approximately
two-thirds of these deliveries were comprised
of 8,000 TEU plus craft, while a further
29 per cent were Post-Panamax ships between
3,000 and 7,999 TEU.
Given
that most of the demolitions have come in
the 3,000 TEU and below category, this clearly
demonstrates the fact that the global containership
fleet is getting bigger, while the smaller
vessels are being pushed outˇXpotentially
along with their operators.
We
have spoken with a number of smaller operators
that are very concerned over this trend
in the industry to continue upsizing as
the smaller ships, even in their natural
markets, become increasingly marginalised.
As
the size of ships in the Asia-Europe and
transpacific trades continues to rise from
8,000 TEU a decade ago to over 10,000 TEU
in more recent times, and now as the latest
newbuildings in this sector edge up towards
20,000 TEU, the upsizing trend is being
mirrored in other trades, only on a smaller
scale.
The
fact that there are vessels in excess of
8,000 TEU being deployed in Intra-Asia,
and other short-haul trades, not only adds
a lot of capacity into those trades, which
are already suffering as a result of low
freight rates, it means that the carriers
that have brought these ships in will enjoy
lower unit costs at the expense of those
carriers that have traditionally served
as specialists in those markets.
If
they are marginalised then many of these
companies may cease to exist if the current
trend continues. Perhaps more than anyone
else, these niche Intra-Asia carriers are
praying for a rebound in the mainline east-west
trades, simply so the major players will
pack their big ships up and go back to their
own specialist trades.
Clarkson
reports that vessel orders for 2014 remains
rather low at this stage, however, this
is clearly not a sign that next year will
see a supply shortage. Too often in recent
years we have seen a lack of activity in
newbuilding orders suddenly change into
a frenzy of orders.
Unfortunately
the shipping industry can so often become
a giant game of follow the leader, even
if it means following the leader of a cliff.
It
is absolutely crucial for the lines to focus
on stability going forward. Recently in
Shipping Gazette we argued on behalf of
the lines to say that their orders should
be seen in light of their perceived need
to plan for the future. Now that they have
ordered to secure tonnage for the future,
it is time to let demand make up some of
the lost ground it has suffered in recent
years.
Then,
and only then, can we hope to see a turnaround
by 2014.
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