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At
the other end of the spectrum we could be
looking at a supply increase of 7.5 per
cent and a demand increase of 7.5 per cent.
If
there are going to be such divergent forecasts,
at least there should be some solid data
and argument to back up why the analyst
believes this forecast or that forecast
to be accurate. It should not be acceptable
simply to say supply is expected to grow
by five per cent, 10 per cent or demand
is believed by "many" in the industry
to grow three or four per cent this year.
This
leaves the industry in the unenviable position
of having to pick which one is accurate,
if any. In fact, if all of these forecasts
are so different from one another, should
we put any stock in any of them at all?
In
a conversation with this publication a few
years back Port Metro Vancouver chief executive
officer, Robin Silvester, spoke to us about
some of the problems he faced at the time
in his role, based on the divergent numbers
and methodologies that were used for measuring
various statistics, such as container numbers
at his port.
To
solve the problem he brought the road, rail
and maritime parties involved in port operations
at Vancouver together where they agreed
on a standardised method of counting containers
and bulk shipments, among other items.
By
standardising this process the port managed
to resolve the many arguments that had previously
broken out over the different numbers each
party was citing due to the different standards
being used.
The
end result was clarity. The container shipping
industry is a turbulent enough as it is.
Greater clarity would presumably help to
also provide greater stability.
Supply
and demand projections are vital for the
industry, yet if there are so many different
estimates that may take into account different
factors then clearly this makes for greater
confusion and more turbulence.
In
saying this it must be noted that this publication
too has used a variety of sources to provide
the public with an idea of what is happening
in terms of supply and demand as well.
This
is done for the same reason that other publications
do it, to provide the market with some guidance
as to what to expect in the coming year.
And surely, what is available at present
is still better than nothing at all.
But
perhaps it is time for the industry to begin
looking at a standardised way of measuring
the growth of these two important parameters.
It
is conceivable for supply growth at least
because we can view a physical orderbook,
while demand is always going to be more
difficult to gauge.
The
solution is certainly not an easy one, but
at least there should be some talk about
how a solution might be found. After all,
dialogue is the first step forward.
So
on that note, let the discussion begin...
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