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CONTAINERISED
trade grew an estimated 4.1 per cent year
on year in 2012 to 157 million TEU as Asia-Europe
volumes contracted and the transpacific
posted only marginal growth, according to
the latest data from Clarkson Research Services.
The
growth figure fared most unfavourably against
the 5.9 per cent increase in supply. This
is even worse when we consider that most
of last year¡¦s incoming tonnage was bound
for the Asia-Europe and transpacific trades.
But despite the poor showing last year,
Clarkson expects a slightly improved picture
for the container shipping industry in 2013¡K
Globally,
the group is anticipating full year growth
of 6.6 per cent against an increase in total
container shipping supply of seven per cent.
So
while there is still imbalance in favour
of supply, the excess is only very marginal.
Sure, this marginal surplus will still add
onto the rather significant surplus from
last year, but if carriers were able to
avoid devastating losses last year, which
they are expected to have done, then there
is no reason they shouldn¡¦t be able to
repeat that feat this year.
Of
course the supply and demand forecasts are
merely predictions and a lot can change
between January and December.
This
time last year demand in 2012 was projected
to grow by 8.2 per cent against a supply
increase of 7.6 per cent. Much of that growth
in demand was expected to come from the
emerging market trades, which along with
the major east-west trades came in well
below expectations.
This
year demand growth could be negatively impacted
by a worsening of the European debt crisis
and the highly publicised fiscal cliff in
the United States.
On
a more positive note figures coming out
of China are encouraging. Most impressive,
and perhaps surprising, is its manufacturing
sector, which appears to be well and truly
in expansion mode.
According
to Markit the HSBC Purchasing Managers¡¦
Index (PMI) rose to 51.5 points in December,
up from 50.5 points the month before. This
also represents the highest the index has
reached in 19 months.
In
addition to China¡¦s resurgence the US is
also seeing positive moves in its housing
sector, as we reported earlier this month
and retail sales were better than expected
in December, despite a fall in consumer
confidence.
The
US economy really could go either way this
year, depending on how the government handles
the nation¡¦s dire debt situation. But analysts
appear optimistic that it will avoid falling
into recession.
As
for Clarkson¡¦s analysts they are quite
optimistic about the prospects for the transpacific
trade this year. The group is forecasting
an increase in volumes of 5.68 per cent
this year for a total of 22.3 million TEU.
After
an estimated 1.46 per cent contraction in
Asia-Europe volumes in 2012, Clarkson expects
a better performance this year with growth
of 3.96 per cent for a total of 21 million
TEU.
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