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The
other major east-west trade, the transatlantic,
which is believed to have posted flat growth
for 6.2 million TEU, is projected to record
growth of 4.8 per cent for 6.5 million TEU.
Non-mainline
east-west tradesˇXtrade between North America,
Europe, the Far East and the Indian Subcontinent
and Middle EastˇXgrew by an estimated 4.7
per cent year on year to 19.7 million TEU,
which was well below initial expectations.
In
2013 Clarkson is forecasting a turnaround
with growth of 7.61 per cent for 21.2 million
TEU for the year.
On
the North-South trades growth this year
is anticipated to reach 7.06 per cent for
a total of 28.8 million TEU, against an
estimated 5.07 per cent for 25.6 million
TEU.
On
all other trades Clarkson is predicting
a 7.48 per cent increase in traffic for
67.5 million TEU this year, up from growth
of 6.62 per cent in 2012 for a total of
62.8 million TEU.
If
this forecast proves accurate, and that
is a very big ˇ§ifˇ¨, then 2013 will truly
be a stronger year for the container shipping
industry in terms of demand growth.
But
even if demand is stronger, the forecast
still projects a supply overlap, so shipping
lines will need to continue to do what they
did for much of 2012ˇXmaintain rate discipline.
This
does not mean that the lines should push
rates up through the roof. The market certainly
cannot and should not support that. But
the lines should also not allow themselves
to be pressured into lowering rates to levels
that would see them spill large amounts
of red ink in 2013.
There
will be pressure to drop rates and grab
market share this year. That pressure will
always be there, particularly in tough times.
But this is not in the interests of the
market.
This
should be a year of caution for the liner
companies, not of panic. Many analysts and
market insiders believe the real turnaround
will come in 2014. If the industry can steel
itself until then, then it will get through
what could be a rather turbulent 2013 relatively
unscathed.
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