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CONTAINERSHIP
deliveries are forecast to hit an all-time
high this year with a projected 1.7 million
TEU coming on stream. However, with so many
variables that are often not taken into
account, the actual increase in the active
global containership fleet this year could
be significantly lower.
Based
on data compiled by Clarkson Research Services
the global containership fleet at the end
of 2012 stood at 16.23 million TEU.
According
to the group's current estimates the fleet
will grow by roughly seven per cent to 17.36
million TEU by the end of this year. This
represents an increase in tonnage of 1.13
million TEU - well short of the 1.7 million
TEU forecast by other parties. However,
Clarkson's figures do take into account
a number of factors, including its own estimates
on delivery slippage and scrapping, as this
writer understands...
 click image
to enlarge
For
the purpose of this article today we will
assume a worst-case scenario [from the supply-demand
balance point of view] of an influx of 1.7
million TEU entering the market in 2013.
Based on the fleet size at the end of 2012
this represents an increase in fully cellular
containership capacity of 10 per cent.
This
is measured against demand growth forecasts
ranging anywhere between three and six per
cent. Again, let's assume a worst-case scenario
of three per cent growth in global shipping
demand.
So
in our worst-case scenario, supply will
grow by 10 per cent against demand growth
of just three per cent. This would truly
be devastating if accurate. Shipping lines
are already allowing rates to freefall and
even based on the recent announcements on
rate increases this month, the carriers
appear willing to undercut their competitors.
If
there is indeed a seven per cent surplus
in terms of supply growth this year, then
one would imagine that the current rate
wars will only get uglier as the year progresses.
But
the truth of the matter is not quite as
daunting.
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